One More To Turn The Tide: NBA Finals Game 6 Preview

So we’re finally here at the stage of the NBA season where one team can change the course of history, or the other team can fight for another day. The 2025 NBA Finals Game 5 showcased Jalen Williams' dominant 40-point performance that propelled the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 120-109 victory over the Indiana Pacers, giving them a commanding 3-2 series lead with historical implications for both championship odds and the sports card market. Historical data shows teams in OKC's position have won the championship 90% of the time over the past decade. Positioning themselves one victory away from their first NBA championship since relocating from Seattle.

image courtesy of New York Times

Outside of their dominant offensive performance, the Thunder’s defensive intensity has continued to create problems for the Indiana Pacers, forcing 22 Pacers turnovers that translated to 32 points. The Pacers struggle didn’t help with Haliburton’s minutes severely limited by right calf tightness sustained in the first quarter. Haliburton had 4 points from the free-throw line with 0-of-6 shooting from the field. Pascal Siakam was the primary offensive weapon, scoring 28 points on an efficient 50% shooting while contributing 6 rebounds and 4 assists.

Behind Jalen Williams’ dominant game was the league MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, getting a double-double with 31 points, 10 assists, 4 blocks and 2 steals. The Thunder's superstar tandem of Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combined for 71 points, marking the tenth time this season the duo has surpassed 70 combined points in a single game. Their combined statistical output of 103 points scored or assisted represents the most by any duo in an NBA Finals game over the past 50 years.

image courtesy of The Spokesman-Review

Now, with Game 6 happening tonight, the basketball world has been seeing a continued market surge in the sportscard marketplace as well. The sports collectibles market has responded enthusiastically to the Finals matchup, particularly benefiting players making their championship debut, which is about 90% of the players out on the court. SGA being the 2025 NBA MVP, and in the finals, his card market has seen about 60% or greater increases in value amongst his rookie cards. Tyrese Haliburton has seen the most tremendous upside to his card market, a remarkable 160% increase in the past 30 days. Which may have been due to his “overrated” title that he received from the league, to now being in the NBA Finals.

Jalen Williams represents an emerging investment opportunity, with his 2022 rookie cards experiencing a 28% increase over the past month. The relatively modest pricing compared to established stars presents a potential upside for collectors betting on his continued development.

Below are some auction prices from the ALT Trading Card Marketplace.

Historical data from the past decade reveals that teams leading 3-2 in the NBA Finals possess an overwhelming advantage, winning the championship in 9 of 10 instances since 2015. This 90% success rate demonstrates the statistical improbability of championship comebacks from 2-3 deficits.

Historical success rate of NBA Finals teams leading 3-2 over the last decade

Oklahoma City's current position represents the culmination of a remarkable organizational rebuild, with the Thunder posting a league-best 68-14 regular season record before navigating a challenging playoff path. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's pursuit of becoming the first player since Stephen Curry in 2015 to win both MVP and NBA championship in the same season adds individual narrative significance to the team's championship quest.

Game 6 is tonight at 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT on ABC presented by YouTube TV.